Recently in Peak oil Category

The world of oil is in for a roller-coaster ride over the next few years if Deutsche Bank analysts are right, with oil demand set to peak in just seven years' time as crude spikes again, this time to $175/barrel, before falling into long-term decline.

It won't be a case of oil running out, however. Rather, the world will become much more efficient in its use of energy. But in the next few years, Deutsche predicts, we will see a lot of volatility and even more chronic under-investment in production capacity.

A session with a leading Peak Oil supporter can always be a sobering experience. That was certainly the case May 28 at the "New Challenges for Crude Oil" conference in Geneva, where the president of main international Peak Oil group spoke.

The study announced by Cambridge Energy Research Associates last week, laying out what it sees as a projected cutback in production due to ongoing cutbacks in capital spending, gets a little more support in the real world every day.

What CERA is writing about hasn't stopped. The CERA report came out Friday, March 27. In the 7-day period surrounding that release, the following developments have been recorded, to help support CERA's theory:

One of the sources of conflict in the long-running war of words between the Peak Oil school and Cambridge Energy Research Associates was explained at the CERA annual meeting today...sort of.

We've written a great deal here at The Barrel about the woeful performance of Mexico's oil industry.

A milestone was reached last month, and it's nothing to celebrate for anybody: Production of the Cantarell oil complex in Mexico's Sound of Campeche dropped below 1 million b/d in August for the first time in 13 years.

The numbers just released in Mexico are breathaking.

Platts' correspondent Ronald Buchanan reported today that the decline in Mexican crude exports gathered speed in "spectacular fashion" in May when they dropped 20.7% year-on-year to 1.376 million b/d, quoting Pemex figures. May production was was 2.798 million b/d, a decline of 10% on the same month of last year.

Time magazine carried an interesting story Friday, on the same day that crude oil posted its biggest one-day jump in history, an increase of about $11/barrel.

Legendary upstream oil investor Richard Rainwater, at least for now, thinks the price has peaked.

Billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens predicted in early 2007 that oil would rise over $80/b by the time he reached 80 years of age. Today, May 22, 2008, is Pickens's 80th birthday and, along with wishing him many happy returns, The Barrel wonders what use predictions are in the unprecedented price environment we find ourselves in today.

Pickens, who has repeatedly revised his predictions upward since the $80/b claim, fulfilled his prediction with 253 days to spare. In fact, the NYMEX July WTI contract rose to a new high of $135.09/b Thursday, but July Brent on ICE overtook it to peak at $135.14/b in early London trading.

There's no shortage of bleak predictions in the oil industry these days. Here's the April 7 version.

Fereidun Fesharaki is the well-known chairman and CEO of Hawaii-based Facts Global Energy. He has been co-chairman for many years of the Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference, taking place this year in Doha, Qatar. His association with the meeting is strong enough that is has been called "the Fesharaki meeting."

We aren't running an advertisement here for the Peak Oil crowd, but following up on the Mexico note from the other day, The Barrel believed that this item from today's news was worthy of being highlighted.

The UK government published statistics today that showed the country, its North Sea assets notwithstanding, saw its net imports of natural gas rising to 20.3 billion cubic meters in 2007, an increase of 74% on the year.