Recently in OPEC Category

After dropping to the lowest levels in more than two decades this summer, Nigerian oil production is poised to rebound further in the near term following an amnesty agreement between the government and key militant leaders.

Crude production is on course to top 2 million barrels per day after the amnesty deal halted attacks on oil facilities, but the country may have its work cut out simply holding on to its current oil production capacity in the short-term.

The world of oil is in for a roller-coaster ride over the next few years if Deutsche Bank analysts are right, with oil demand set to peak in just seven years' time as crude spikes again, this time to $175/barrel, before falling into long-term decline.

It won't be a case of oil running out, however. Rather, the world will become much more efficient in its use of energy. But in the next few years, Deutsche predicts, we will see a lot of volatility and even more chronic under-investment in production capacity.

Steadily diminishing OPEC compliance with last December's 4.2 million b/d output pact is turning out to be no big deal in light of rising hopes that the world economy may finally be on the path to recovery.

The latest Platts estimates show total OPEC production in September at 28.83 million b/d and output from the 11 members bound by quotas at 26.33 million b/d, up 40,000 b/d and 90,000 b/d respectively from August. OPEC's own estimates, derived from secondary sources, put the September volumes even higher -- 28.9 million b/d for all 12 members, including Iraq, and 26.42 million b/d for the OPEC-11, minus Iraq.

It was pretty clear in the runup to OPEC's September 9 meeting that ministers were not going to change quotas.

But, given that there had been a lot of comments from OPEC ministers about falling adherence to those quotas and high inventories in the industrialized countries, it had been expected that the communique would call for stricter compliance.

It's not unheard of for OPEC to spring surprises and come out with an unexpected decision on production but that looks highly unlikely at the meeting that will take place late on September 9.

Every utterance by ministers arriving in the Austrian capital over the past couple of days suggests that OPEC will again rubber-stamp the deal agreed last December to remove 4.2 million b/d of crude supply from world oil markets.

A month before the US bombing of Libya in April 1986, the world's media descended on Libya in anticipation of a military strike after then US president Ronald Reagan accused Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi of backing terrorist attacks and ordered his navy to sail for Libya.

As the weeks dragged on with no military action, visas expired and most of the assembled hacks left the country, leaving behind a small group of diehard news agency reporters.

It's that time of the month again. Some estimates of OPEC production have already appeared and the next few days will see those of the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration.

The latest Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts shows that OPEC volumes have risen for the fourth consecutive month. Total output, including that of Iraq, is estimated to have risen by 100,000 b/d to 28.57 million b/d in July from 28.47 million b/d in June.

When the new Kuwaiti minister arrived in Vienna to take part in his first ever OPEC meeting late last week, some of the assembled journalists followed him into the hotel's revolving door. It was a bit cartoonish as the ladies and
gentlemen of the press jammed themselves into the tiny space with Sheikh Ahmed al-Sabah and got stuck there for a few minutes.

When asked about oil policy and OPEC's March meeting at a Platts Podium yesterday, a clearly uncomfortable and ill prepared Energy Secretary Steven Chu told reporters that he felt like he's been thrown "into the deep end of the pool."

It could have been poor staff work. Surely, if not Chu himself, someone at DOE should have anticipated an OPEC question or two.